Metal silicon raw material dynamics

Recently, the National Energy Administration released national power industry statistics from January to November. Data show that as of the end of November, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was approximately 2.85 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation is approximately 560 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 49.9%; the installed capacity of wind power generation is approximately 410 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%.

The hot track and bright power generation data cannot conceal the many challenges that China's photovoltaic industry will face in 2023, such as "involution", "overcapacity", and "low prices".

1. Price bottoming out, profit compression

Overall in 2023, changes in market supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry this year are affected by a variety of factors. There is currently a certain degree of phased and structural excess in the industry, especially overcapacity in the mid- to low-end. Although there are some fluctuations and adjustments, However, overall the photovoltaic market still maintains a strong growth momentum. Industry fluctuations are also conducive to accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity in the industry and accelerating product technology iteration, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry in the long run.

2. Technology iteration and competition overseas

In 2024, competition in overseas markets will still be the highlight of the photovoltaic industry. Li Xiande, chairman of JinkoSolar, pointed out that in an industrial landscape characterized by cyclical fluctuations and opportunities, photovoltaics are the most economical energy source. Short-term market fluctuations will not change the long-term upward trend of the global photovoltaic market. It is expected that market demand will grow next year. At 20%-30%. Integrated technological leadership and cost advantages are the key for companies to gain profit opportunities. Regarding the layout of the overseas industrial chain, Li Xiande expressed that he remains highly concerned about the Middle East market. In recent years, the photovoltaic industry has been on the rise, and silicon material production capacity has gradually become overcapacity. In the process, the production of raw material industrial silicon has also been wildly expanded, and even the organic silicon leader Hesheng Silicon has made a bold move into photovoltaics. Now that the photovoltaic industry has begun to clean up low-end production capacity, what impact will it have on silicone after supply and demand are balanced? Welcome to discuss together!